Updated Premier League Odds After a Wild Matchday Seven
The seventh matchday of the 2025/26 Premier League season is officially in the books, and the series of shocking results has ripped up the script with the bookmakers. Liverpool have been the overwhelming favourites to claim the title all throughout preseason and into the first five weeks of the campaign. However, their defeat at Chelsea - their third loss in a week, no less - has set the alarm bells ringing at Anfield.
Those same bells were previously ringing around the Emirates following a loss to the reigning champion Reds and a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City. The Gunners have since responded, though, coming back from the dead to beat Newcastle at St. James' Park before then knocking off bogey team West Ham on home turf for the first time in three years. Now, the bookies have earmarked Mikel Arteta's side as the team to beat.
So, what has happened to the betting charts following matchday seven's shock results? Let's take a look at the new 2025/26 Premier League title frontrunners.
Arsenal
Barely a fortnight before Arsenal's 2-0 home victory over the Hammers, they were falling out of contention with the bookies. Now, the latest odds make them the 1.90 favourites to claim a first title in 22 years. Using a no-vig calculator, designed to show the true chance of a result coming to fruition without a bookmaker's margin muddying the waters, we can see just how likely betting sites think The Gunners are to end their barren spell.
The popular no-vig calculator at Thunderpick shows that Mikel Arteta's men have a 48.65% chance of winning the title this season, and on current form, it would take a brave punter to bet against them. Goals from former Hammer Declan Rice and his England international teammate Bukayo Saka were enough to secure a 2-0 victory against West Ham, a team that has beaten the Gunners at the Emirates in each of the last two seasons. Add to that the stunning 2-1 triumph against Newcastle a week earlier, and it's clear that Arsenal are beginning to flex their muscles.
In the coming weeks, the North London side has a run of favourable fixtures which could see them pull out a lead at the Premier League's summit. Fulham, Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Sunderland make up Arsenal's next four games, and chances are that they will win all four, ramping up the pressure on their rivals to find a response.
Liverpool
Arne Slot's Liverpool romped to the title last season, finishing a mighty ten points clear of Arsenal to claim the crown for the second time in five years. A summer spending spree that saw them twice smash the British transfer record to sign Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak had many thinking that the Reds would run away with the crown again in 2025/26. And it was indeed looking that way when the champions won all five of their opening games, including a 1-0 home triumph against the Gunners.
Well, what a difference a week makes. Since the international break, Liverpool have lost three games in the space of a week. They suffered their first defeat of the season against Crystal Palace, before losing again days later against Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League. Now, they have been beaten again, this time by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and the bookies have responded brutally.
After being an odds-on favourite to retain their title barely a fortnight ago, the Reds are now a distant 2/1 second favourite. To put that into context, Arsenal haven't been priced that long all season, despite losing to Liverpool and also picking up a draw. The pendulum has well and truly swung away from Anfield, and the question now is, how will the Reds respond?
Manchester City
Manchester City might not be the force of old, but don't write them off just yet. Prior to last season getting underway, Pep Guardiola's Blues were an unstoppable force, winning an unprecedented four Premier League titles on the spin as well as a maiden UEFA Champions League crown in 2023. While they may have surrendered their crown with a whimper last season, they remain in contention this term.
The Citizens are down in fifth place at the moment but are only three points off the summit, with their matchday seven victory away at Brentford their fourth Premier League game without defeat, with three of those being wins. Now, they're a 5/1 shot to win the title, the shortest they have been priced since preseason.
The key to City's resurgence has been the prolific form of Erling Haaland. The talismanic Norwegian striker has returned to form this season, netting a whopping nine goals in just seven games to shoot to the top of the Premier League scoring charts. If he continues in a similar vein, then the Blues certainly aren't to be written off from reclaiming their throne next May.