When the Days Rest Angle Should be Ignored
By Kris Lazaro (5/3/2007)
The sportsbooks predict that playing on zero days of rest forces a team to lose on average 1.5 points per game. This is because they are tired, whether they had to travel or not. Then they are facing a team that has had more rest than them and invariably have trouble keeping up with them for a whole 48 minutes on the basketball court.
You may see this team play well in the first half but it is the second half where tired legs really mess you up. But is it always safe to assume that playing on 0 days rest should force you to lose 1.5 points in every situation? Nope, so let us explain some scenarios.
Off a Big Loss. If a team is coming off of a big loss, they will generally have rested all of their players. This means that the team is actually not technically tired in their next game. As a handicapper, you may look at the situation and see that the team is playing on back to back days but what about the starters.
Both Teams on Zero Days Rest. If both teams are facing each other on zero days of rest. Then it would be obvious to believe that the impact of the same is nullified for both teams. They will both be coming into this game tired. Now it is just a matter of checking out which team has the best fitness. Which teams is travelling and which is not. Which of the teams is the home team, etc.
Players Off Injuries. Just like the big loss scenario, if one of the key players on a team is coming off of an injury (or suspension) then they are not prone to the same tiredness problem. They may be sore from their injury. They may be a little bit rusty. But it won't affect their tiredness and ability to run up and down the court as if they were playing on zero days rest. So if a top player on the team is coming off an injury not associated with his legs then you can definitely nullify the zero days rest angle at least somewhat. Remember that the other 4 starters on the team will suffer the zero days rest tiredness affliction.
Sports betting is all about getting the best possible odds in every way that you can. And if you were to turn all of your pushes to wins and half-point losses to pushes, you would have saved a lot more money. And finding situations like these that nullify reasons the sportsbooks adjust the odds the way that they do, you will be sure to come out positive at the end of the day.
|