Underdogs or Favorites in Baseball?
By Michael Williams (7/26/2006)
Most novice gamblers betting baseball look for
the biggest favorites on the board. The bigger the favorite, the more time they
will spend analyzing it. Sportsbooks know this and overwhelmingly shade the line
against favorites. Underdogs are where the value lies but that does not mean you
always go for the underdog.
When to Bet Underdogs
You generally want to bet on underdogs in division rivalry games. These are the
games where both teams are very familiar with each other and no significant
amount of advantage lies on either team. What you end up with is very successful
betting on both sides.
Underdogs are teams that are usually poor in the standings. But look for the
teams that have put together a little bit of a streak. Teams on a winning streak
or many wins over their last 10 are the types of teams you want to bet on.
When to Bet Favorites
A lot of favorites are overvalued but when betting favorites, you have to look
for qualities you cannot quantify. Things like motivation are usually very
strong telling signs that you want to go for a team. I define a favorite as a
team "that should win". But unless they are motivated, you cannot expect them to
win.
Classic signs of a motivated team are:
1. Off a shutout loss.
2. Loss as a huge favorite.
3. Double digit or worse loss.
4. Looking for a victory to win a series. Generally in the third game of a
series tied 1-1.
If you focus on the underdogs in a division rivalry game and the motivated
favorites of any game, you are sure to have success betting on baseball.
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