Travelling: The Underrated Angle
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
Traveling is one of the most underrated sports
angles that handicappers use to direct their plays. The general public, in fact,
disregard this angle when they place their hard-earned money on a ‘great’
team—later questioning why their ‘great’ team lost to such an inferior team.
Situations such as this highlight the necessity to consider the travel angle
when analyzing a game; for if one disregards it, one will lose in the long run.
The National Basketball Association is a great league to study the affects of
travelling. Sports Illustrated recently published an article with regards to the
winning percentage of teams off back-to-back games (considering both the
visiting and home team). Their analysis revealed that teams who have this type
of scheduling usually lost their following game.
From a betting stand point, these teams do horrible ATS in these types of
situations. Teams who are favored to win the game usually do not cover the
spread, let alone win the game. An underlying angle reveals that if a game
features both the visiting and home team in a back-to-back situation, the home
team usually comes out victorious (straight up and ATS). A side corollary exists
in these types of situations—although it is very profitable to go against a team
in the second game of a back-to-back, some teams do not follow these trends (ie.
teams on a winning streak, perennial ‘good’ teams such as the Spurs, etc.)
Major League Baseball also offers the same types of traveling angles, albeit
very limited. Since baseball relies on a series format, teams do not travel
every day. It has been very profitable to go against teams on long road trips,
especially those teams on the third leg of their road trip. The best time to
fade these types of teams are in their first game of the series, since these
teams probably just landed in the city in which they are playing in. Conversely,
home teams at home for a long stretch enjoy the greatest advantage. The ultimate
convergence of this is a home team in its 3rd series at home playing against a
visiting team in its 3rd series away from home. Statistically, the home team in
game one will have the greatest advantage of winning the game, no matter who the
pitchers are.
In general, it is best to fade teams off long road trips, during the second of
their back-to-back games, and teams traveling through different times zones.
Traveling takes a toll on the human body and therefore must be considered when
betting in sports.
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