The Superbowl Runner-Up In Their Following Year
Getting to the Superbowl is a pretty tough thing to do in the National Football League (NFL). It takes a lot of determination, will, skill, and a little luck to make it all the way to the championship game. Psychologically, it is pretty intense and quite emotional. This, then, provides a great way to fade the losing team of the Superbowl in the following year.
Since it is such a tough feat to begin with, after a team loses the Superbowl, they will not be as intense and focused as they will be, given such conditions. Usually, teams who come off a Superbowl loss barely break .500 in the following year. For example the 2005-2006 Philadelphia Eagles (6-10), the 2004-2005 Carolina Panthers (7-9), and the 2003-2004 Oakland Raiders (4-12). Clearly, teams suffer from such a letdown from a Superbowl loss that it affects them for an entire season.
But, how can we use this to our advantage? Knowing that teams coming off a Superbowl loss are bad bets, one can bet against them against the spread (ATS) team. Oakland was 3-13, Carolina was 9-6-1 (decent enough), and the Eagles were 5-11. Teams lose their edge, lose their confidence, and most important lose their backers money. Another way to make money off this angle is to keep on ‘rolling’ against such a team until the bet pays off. This is slightly more dangerous, because teams can go on streaks, but fading the Superbowl runner-up is generally a good bet and should be relatively safe.
Carolina is an interesting exception to this rule; often teams who are good defensive teams cover games, and perennially, the Carolina Panthers have been exceptionally good defenders. Hence, they showed a slight positive overall ATS history following their Superbowl loss (to the New England Patriots). As an addendum, be careful of fading good defensive teams. One will usually lose more money if one continuously fades good defensive teams, as opposed to the alternative.
Overall, this strange phenomenon/angle often happens because the public still believes in such a team. Even though they lost the Superbowl, people still believe in them—“they were good last year…why not this year?” This thinking leads to inflated lines and the ‘public’ curse. Thus, fading such teams during the season following a straight up Superbowl loss is profitable.
In closing, it is a good bet to fade the Superbowl runner-up in the season following the Superbowl title run. These teams are often unfocused and have low confidence, thus a great fade opportunity for the gambler.