The Alternate Run-Line In Baseball
On a recent trip to Las Vegas, the author came upon an interesting fact that he feels he needs to share to the sports gambling enthusiast. In betting baseball, specifically Major League Baseball, the gambler can either choose to bet the moneyline on either team (side), play the favorite or the underdog on the runline (favorites are –1.5), or play the over / under (total).
One bet, though, that is hidden and feared by the sportsbooks is the alternate run-line for the underdog. Generally, the run-line is reserved for the favorite. But, when one bets the alternate run-line, one is betting that the underdog will win by more than one run in the baseball contest (underdog –1.5 runs). Such a bet, if used properly and smartly, is a good way to build one’s bankroll. Interestingly enough, during that trip to Las Vegas, the author spoke with one of the line managers after asking why the sportsbook did not offer the alternate run-line. The author was shocked, but validated, from the manager’s answer to his question—“it was simply a bad bet for us. We ended up losing on that proposition”. Interesting.
Sportsbooks have the inherent edge in almost every bet they offer. To readily admit, and eliminate a bet type due to ‘losing money’, should signal to the sports bettor of the value and great betting opportunity that betting on the alternate run-line offers the bettor. One aspect of why this is such a good bet is due to the value of the play. Most underdog alternate run-lines are priced very attractively. As the author will delineate, there are certain factors that the gambler must consider when he/she plays the alternate run-line.
Some key factors—play the alternate run line when,
1. The underdog is the away team (usually teams statistically win by more than one run if they are the visiting team more than if they are the home team—that extra inning in the top of the 9th is a big factor)
2. The underdog is an American League (AL) team (AL underdog teams win at a greater percentage than National League (NL) teams.
3. The underdog is a hard hitting team (as compared to their opponent).
4. The underdog has been winning their games and winning by more than one run.
In summary, the alternate run-line for the underdog is a good bet, pending certain conditions are followed. Play what the sportsbooks fear, and one will end up with more money won, than lost.