Teams That Melt Down
In sports, teams win and lose. Some teams win comfortably and lead wire to wire during a game. Others, meanwhile barely win. Yet, there is a select few that lead the game throughout the majority of the time, but for whatever reason, fall flat and end up losing the game in the last few plays. Such a situation can be profitable for the savvy sports gambler, if one is able to recognize and follow such an occurrence. Known as the ‘team meltdown theory’, this idea stems from the fact that if a team is leading a game and suddenly chokes, such a team will thus lose its next game. Psychologically, individuals in a team prepare very intensely for upcoming games. If they are winning and playing up to their potential and eventually win the game, their preparations are validated. If such a team has a big lead, and loses it and loses the whole game entirely, there will be some psychological ramifications for such a failure.
Teams that have a big lead during a game and, for whatever reason, lose such a lead and end up losing the game develop a ‘complex’ and will be doomed for their next game. Take for example the 2006 NBA Finals. Dallas had won games one and two and was playing very confidently in game three in Miami (all but the last quarter). Dallas, for whatever reason, fell flat and could not sink a basket. They had a 77-68 lead heading into the fourth quarter, and had a double-digit lead in the beginning of the quarter. After committing crucial turnovers and missing almost every other shot, Miami closed the deficit and tied the game. Dallas managed to keep the game close, but eventually lost the game 98-96. This meltdown caused a major psychological strain on the Mavericks. Game four validates this theory—Dallas was smoked 98-74, and also ended up losing the series in six games.
This theory can be simple to explain. On the surface, one would simply fade the team who lost—thinking, losing teams simply lose. But, as one searches for a deeper meaning into why such a team lost its previous game, one sees that such a team is suffering from a meltdown. This situation is very unfavorable; even all the coaching in the world cannot help such a team. One way to profit in these situations is simply to bet against such teams.
In closing, fade teams in their next game if such a team has a huge lead in the closing moments of their last game and end up losing the lead and the game.