Sports handicapping is all about picking certain situations that is favorable to the sports bettor. One angle that has proven to be profitable over the years is the travel angle as it relates to teams off long road trips.
There are actually two ways to look at teams off long road trips. Primarily, let us define a long road trip as a trip that is equal to or greater than 5 games. Opposite coast trips (Western teams on an Eastern road trip, and vice versa) are excellent examples of long road trips.
Teams who have been winning on a road trip (greater than .500) usually lose the last game of such a trip. On the opposite spectrum, teams who have been loosing usually give their maximum effort in their last game. Psychologically, such teams feel a need to salvage such a trip, thus they will do their best to win that last game.
In both scenarios, though, the first game back from a long road trip is a very dangerous spot for teams in this scenario. After being gone for so long, these teams often suffer from complacency. Athletes are people too, and as such, their focus will not entirely be on playing. The players may have gone out with their family, friends, etc. and their mindset will not be as complete.
As a side note, teams who are about to embark on a long road trip usually will want to begin such a trip on a positive note. As such, it will benefit the sports gambler if he backs such a team on the first game of such a long road trip. This first game will set the tempo of the rest of the trip, and the sports gambler can be rest assured that the team he is backing will devote 100% of their effort in this first game.
In closing, long road trips are a great way to make winning plays, if the handicapper knows what to look for. As stated in this article, back teams in their last game if they have been loosing, and fade teams if they have been winning.
?Second Half Bets
Second half bets are an interesting bet type to consider. These types of bets show up in basketball and football halftimes and are created by oddsmakers during the first half of a game. Studied seriously, second half bets can be profitable, if the handicapper follows systems as outlined in this article.
The second half line can thought of as a modified spread for the game. If a team is favored by 3 points in a game, and is down by 15 at the half, such a team will usually be favored by 1-2 points at the half (NBA games). This would mean that such a team will be +14 or +13 for the game! This creates value in the line. If one primarily liked such a side, but could not place the bet for whatever reason, the second half gives such a bettor a second chance. Bettor beware though—if a team looks like they will cover a game and the second half “mirrors” the full game, such a team almost always doesn’t cover the game. For example, if a team is favored by 10 points and they re up by 6 at the half, and the halftime line is such a team –4.5, this bet will usually not win. It has been the experience of the author that such bets are “sucker” bets, and as such, bettors should not trust this bet type.
Another angle to consider is going against the public percentages as it relates to the second half lines. If the general public is on one side of a bet pretty heavily, and if such a side is up by a large margin at the half, it behooves the sports bettor to fade such a team in the second half. The author has had many experiences in these situations.
In closing, second half lines can be tricky, but if one sees value, then one must take the opportunity and seize it.