Stop Worrying About League Wide Trends - Focus on Details
By Michael Williams (2/19/2007)
I hear it far too often: "Teams in this situation are more likely to win ATS". It is okay in some sense but to rely on it is ridiculous.
Come on guys, just because a team is playing on 0 days rest in the NBA does not mean you automatically go against them. You have to look at how the team is. Is it an up tempo team and likely to get tired or a slow team that is probably not phased about playing on 0 days rest.
Then you should look at their past records in that same situation. League-wide it might be a go-against angle. But there are some teams that revel in it. Some teams are good in it.
It is also important to look at the games themselves. Who was the first opponent, who was the second opponent. Is the second opponent a run and gun type of team that can take advantage of the tired legs?
Therefore teams like Dallas and Phoenix will feast on teams playing on 0 days rest. Because they will run them out of the building. So pay attention to the details. Not just the league wide results.
This is where systems come in. They take a combination of angles and fit them together like a puzzle. Because combinations of angles and trends with a bit more on the specifics and dynamics of any particular team is what will win money in the long run.
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