Betting Systems - Star players after a bad game

Propositions bet, also known as prop bets, are usually the worst bets to make in sports gambling. Due in part to high vigorish (juice imparted by the sportsbooks), these bets usually offer the savvy, professional sports bettor no value—except in a specific prop bet that deals with a player’s overall performance (ie. total points, total points + rebounds, etc.) after a bad outing last time out. In general, star players get paid the big bucks to score the most points, assist his/her teammates, and to win the game. If such a player falters in a game, take a good look at his/her prop bet the following game—it should offer tremendous value, mainly due to said player’s intentions to ‘bounce back’ from such a horrendous game.

Take for example Dirk Nowitzki during the 2006 Western Conference finals. In game 4, Nowitzki had a dismal shooting percentage and managed to only score a measly 11 points in Phoenix. After much taunting by the media, and a personal determination to do his best in his next game, Nowitzki dropped 50 points on the Suns’ defense in game 5. This theory even becomes stronger in the playoffs, where teams rely on their superstars to get the job done.

Since vigorish can be a huge thing to consider when placing prop bets such as this, the author recommends that bettors find the best line. Some hints to get the best line include: shopping around different sportsbooks, placing the bet earlier (usually when the line comes out), etc. Prop bets were created by the sportsbooks to attract more action in their books—do not merely rely on these bets all the time…in other words learn to pick your spots. Stick to prop bets that are less than –130 or so, for anything higher than this is usually bad value.

Proposition bets are not the sole places where bettors can benefit from a star player’s dismal performance. In baseball, if a ‘great’ pitcher unusually does badly in one game, he usually bounces back with a great pitching performance the following game. Revenge games, in which the pitcher has lost to one team badly and plays the same team again, are also spots to back the pitcher’s team (the one who is seeking revenge). Bouncing back from a bad outing is quite common in baseball, suffice it to say that the pitcher ‘bouncing back’ is a star pitcher to begin with.

In closing, consider playing the prop bets after a star player performs dismally in a game (especially playoff games). Do not go wild on any prop bet and remember to not lay more than –130 on any prop bet—remember value.

Read more about Betting Systems and our sportsbooks reviews.

Articles Sports Betting Systems:

Star Players Absence
Betting on Streaks
Revenge Games
Betting on the Champion
Fading the Public