Betting Systems - Sports Betting Systems Strategy Probabil

You can tweak enough numbers and parameters to make something seem more likely than it really is. If you were to flip a fair coin 1,000 times and I told you I found a system to predict heads 60% of the time, would you believe me?
 

Many betting systems that handicappers sell you are like this. They make enough constraints on a large number of events to produce a small enough sample size that makes an absurd claim such as being able to predict 60% heads. Take time to infinity and you will see this system drops back to 50% for heads.

There is a trick I use to make sure that the sports betting systems I use are valid and do not fall into this trap. But I will continue to ramble on about the flipping of the coins experiment.

So let us pretend that the two of us independently come up with systems to predict heads at an alarming 60% rate. If we were to take the intersection of our two systems, basically only bet on heads when we both predict heads, our systems would still be 60%.

The reason that the resultant system comes up 60% heads is because there was no true value to either of the systems. When you do this with any sport like football/basketball/baseball, however, and you have two real systems for home favorites and take the intersection, the resultant is generally a stronger bet than the individual systems themselves. If by chance the resultant system is worse than the best performing individual system, then I guarantee there is a problem with one of the sports systems.