Small Underdogs at Home
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
In the major two sports of basketball and
football, the small underdog theory can be best applied. This theory relies on
the fact that the public, and not the true power line, determines the spread for
any sports game. When two teams are relatively equal, and the betting public
‘thinks’ that the visiting team has a slight edge, the small underdog theory
comes into play. This idea involves spreads in football from a pick ‘em to +3,
and in basketball from a pick ‘em to +4.
Home teams obviously enjoy the advantage of being at home and having the
hometown crowd support them. This extra encouragement usually pushes the home
team to play that much better and beat the opposing team, both ATS and straight
up. There have been many circumstances where this theory comes into play in
sports. The betting public usually loves to bet the favorite, thus increasing
value in betting the small underdog at home. In the NFL, it is very dangerous to
bet an away team laying 3 points (before the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh
Steelers were a bad bet when they were laying 3 points or less away from Heinz
Field). These ‘favorites’ usually are the product of public perception, and
usually do not win the game.
In the NBA, small underdogs also enjoy the benefits of the public fade. In high
profile games where the ‘obvious’ better team is the away team, oddsmakers
usually peg their opponent the underdog. These situations usually result in the
home team winning and covering the spread. Factors such as the pride factor,
national exposure/recognition factor, and anti-hype factor, all contribute to
the home team ‘overperforming’ in these types of situations.
One may ask if taking the points is better than taking the moneyline odds for
the small underdogs at home. Practically, the teams who win the game usually
also covers the game. The only instances where the odds differ are in
high-profile games. In such games, the favorite may win, but not cover (even
small favorites of 3 points or less).
Not all
sportsbooks offer the small underdog
moneyline bet. Some books may even be selective as to which games they will
offer the small underdog moneyline. It is therefore up to the bettor to find a
book that offers such a bet for every listed game.
In summary, it is a very good bet to back the small underdog at home. In high
profile games, it is safer to back them ATS, for these games are highly
scrutinized and are usually very sharp (with the favorite winning the game
stgraight up, but not covering).
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