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On Sunday 12/10/2006, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 1 point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. The entire betting public was all over the Indianapolis Colts. They were coming off only their second loss of the season and everybody was saying "No way the Colts will lose a second game in a row".

But that is the wrong mentality. The Jaguars were sitting as 1 point favorites. If everybody and their mother is betting on the Colts, why wouldn't they be 3 point favorites? Because Vegas knows something. They do not want to put too much value on the Jaguars because the seasoned gamblers will be betting on the Jaguars like crazy. Too much risk, especially since the Jaguars are the better bet.

What happened in that game? The Jaguars murdered the Colts 44-17. The Colts were up 10-7 but the Jaguars rattled off 30 consecutive points. Jaguars were the better bet.

So look at the odds in the games and make sure you look between the lines. If the Colts seem like too good of a bet and that they should be more of a favorite, then you must know the Jaguars will most likely be the good bet. The Jaguars won handedly and Vegas kind of predicted it.

The Jaguars are a big divisional rival and the Colts were struggling. In times like these, go with momentum not with "must win, should win".