Rookie Pitchers Are Great
By Kris Lazaro (11/30/2006)
In Major League Baseball (MLB) betting, the odds of a team winning is usually based on the pitchers involved. Heavily favored teams are usually those that feature ace pitchers, such as Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux, etc. The one misconception that most bettors fall into is that they blindly bet on such heavy-juiced favorites, thinking that these pitchers and their team will win the game. The truth of the matter is, there are many more factors to consider when one places a baseball bet: some include, but are not limited to the bullpen, hitting average, umpires involved, etc.
A key angle to play on are rookie pitchers at home. This angle usually works best when such a player is making his MLB debut or is playing his first few games in the majors. Oddsmakers usually peg such teams as underdogs; if such a team is a winning team and is currently on a winning streak (winning 7 of their last 10 games, or better), then such a bet on the underdog is a good bet. On average, if such a team is at home and is also an underdog, bets such as these are solid. If the visiting opponent is a division rival, the bet becomes even stronger.
A time to not go for rookie pitchers is on the road. Similar to college players, rookie pitchers still have not acclimated themselves to the professional sports atmosphere and may still be intimidated. These pitchers may crumble and fold under pressure and may give up too many runs for their team to equal, and thus, these pitchers may lose the game on this fact alone. In short, do not go for rookie pitchers if they are on the road.
One explanation for why rookie pitchers do fairly well at home is the manager. If the manager senses his rookie pitcher is tiring, he will usually pull him out. One great example is Mike Scioscia of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Scioscia has a reputation of ‘babying’ his rookie pitchers and yanking them out before the opposing team causes too much damage. If our team relatively stays close to its opposition, our team offense should be able to come back and win the game; the bullpen can then pick up the slack for our rookie pitcher.
In summary, it is very profitable to go for rookie pitchers at home and betting on their team. Our team must be a winning team and be on a current hot streak (7-3 or better in their last 10) for this angle to be most effective.
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