Rival Got You Tired?
By Michael Williams (7/26/2006)
Let's face it: rivals take out a lot of your
energy. You will exert a lot energy and emotion when you spar with a rival, so
much that it hurts you your following game. Empirical analysis shows this fact
costs teams 6 points of value.
The difference of -110 versus -116 is about a 1.4% win percentage difference.
Meaning out of 200 games, 3 games will swing the other way as a result. This can
be the difference between a losing angle and a winning one!
Combining this tidbit of information with other
angles that we are aware of will only help get our wallets fatter.
So far, teams coming off a non-divisional rival
series going against a non-divisional rival coming off a division rivalry series
is +42 units dating back to 2001.
To make it a stronger system, we have to add in a
few more constraints. We know that a 4 game series is much more grueling than a
three game series so we make sure that our opponent is coming off the fourth
game of a division rivalry series.
We never want to go against teams on a roll, so
let us disregard going against teams off of 2+ consecutive wins. A very
interesting dynamic shows us that we do not want to go against teams having lost
2+ consecutive games either. Very likely because a team having lost 2 straight
to a rival will be looking to avenge those losses.
What we end up with is a fantastic system that is
[57-41, +19 units] undervalued in the spread by about 20 points per game.
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