Betting Systems - Recency Effect

In sports betting, image is everything. Nationally televised games are viewed by a multitude of people, and as such, games following a nationally televised game are usually influenced by the betting public. In other words, if a team was handed a humiliating loss, such a team’s line for their next game will be soft (favorable for them to cover). Vice versa, if a team has a huge victory on national television, their next game will be negatively shaded (it will be harder for them to cover their next game).

This is more in line with sportsbook psychology than anything else. Oddsmakers do not merely set the line for games; they do not solely handicap the teams in which they place their lines—they also handicap the people that bet into their lines. For example, the most highly bet upon game is the Superbowl. The Superbowl line is perhaps the most analyzed line in all of sports betting. This line is a reflection of both the teams involved and the betting public (but, more so with the latter). Since the oddsmakers know they will be taking in lots of action, the line has to be decent to get pretty balanced action on both sides of the line (if not more on the loosing side).

Blowouts in nationally televised games also bring about a sense of wonder to the public. The public loves to bet on winners, and what better way to bet than to back a team coming off a blowout. As such, it behooves the sports bettor to fade such a team, especially if it was a nationally televised game. Psychologically, a team that has just blown out a team will feel superior and somewhat arrogant. They will play their next game with a sense of arrogance, which will usually also lead them to not cover and lose their game.

Teams that have just been annihilated usually put on a great performance in their next time out, especially if such a game was on national television. These teams feel the need change themselves, and as such, will perform much better. This actually works across the board in all of the sports, but is most strongest in the NBA (national basketball association).
In closing, the recency effect is yet another angle that deals with past performances, and is used primarily to predict future outcomes.