Playing with Vigor Notre Dame v Michigan State Example
By Kris Lazaro (11/30/2006)
Another marquee matchup will pit the Notre Dame Irish against the Michigan State Spartans this Saturday. Last year, the Irish suffered a bad defeat in overtime as the Spartans beat them 44-41 as 3 point underdogs. In a show of disrespect, the Spartans team waived the flag of Michigan State in the shadows of ‘touchdown Jesus’ and the hollowed halls of Notre Dame—adding insult to injury, the Spartans even planted the flag on the 50 yard line of Notre Dame Stadium after the game. To their shock and dismay the Irish have never forgotten that incident since last year. Charlie Weis should be able to make the necessary changes to help his team beat ‘State this Saturday.
The home team is surprisingly merely 2-8 straight up, and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). Although the Irish are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings against ‘State, they will be playing with some vigor as they also lost to the Michigan Wolverines last Saturday, 21-47, as 5.5 point favorites. In this defeat, the Irish showed they were susceptible to the pass, as the Michigan offense piled up 220 yards in the air. The loss was also the Irish’s worst lost at home in 46 years. In an interview regarding the loss, Charlie Weis told the Daily South Town, “I wouldn’t say we’ll go back to the drawing board…I think we’re going to have to go through a heavy analysis period in the next 24 hours.”
Michigan State, on the other hand is currently 3-0 and 2-1 ATS. They pretty much have the same personnel from last year, with Drew Stanton at the helm. They are currently a 2.5 underdog at home—a situation which the author loves. In these types of matchups (close pointspread games), the author prefers to back the home team. In college, it is relatively difficult to win on the road—with this in mind, and with all the other factors considered, the author recommends playing the Irish against the spread. In the author’s projection, the home underdog will have the early lead in the first half, but will be caught in the second half, as Notre Dame’s talent and resiliency will shine. The team who controls the ball and does not commit the most turnovers will win the game. Both teams should be able to score, as both offensive units are healthy and primed to light up the scoreboard.
Predicted score: Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 38
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