Playing The Runline In Baseball
By Kris Lazaro (5/4/2007)
Betting on baseball can be tricky. Perhaps the best way to bet on baseball is to bet on underdogs. Yet, one has to vary picks between underdogs and favorites to make balanced selections—but, how can one bet a favorite with an underdog price: the answer is betting the favorite on the runline. Betting on the runline is like betting on a team with a spread. The runine standard is to lay 1.5 runs (in other words team A –1.5, where a runline bet on team A states that the bettor is betting that team A will win by 2 or more runs).
Although there are inherent dangers associated with betting the runline on home team favorites (such as having only 8 full innings to score and win by more than 2 runs), betting the runline is a fairly good idea. If one thinks that a favorite will win a game, it is better to bet them on the runline, rather than playing them on the moneyline. One will risk less money to win more (in general). The author suggest playing the favorites on the moneyline up until –130. Anything higher than this line, the author suggests to bet the favorite on the runline.
The alternate runline is another interesting bet. It makes the underdog bet a little more juicy by laying 1.5 runs against the underdog (if team A is an underdog, the alternate runline would be team A –1.5). The odds are of course higher because the underdog is already a non-favored side. The author only recommends betting this when the bettor is fairly confident that the underdog will win the game by more than one run (additionally, the team should be an away team).
The killer of runline bets is the 9th inning and onward. If the favorite is the home team, and one is laying the 1.5 runs, the only way that that bet will cash is if the home team hits a home run with runners on base (since home teams beyond the 8th inning can only win by 1 run, barring any home runs). The team on the runline is the away team, the problem is not even considered.
In closing, runlines are a good bet where a bettor can get plus money on the favorite.
|