Playing the ‘Over/Under’ in baseball games
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
The over/under in baseball is relatively stricter
than in any other sport. The range of most over/under’s include anywhere between
6.5 to as high as 15, but most fall into the 8 or 9 range. The extreme minimum
and maximum of
baseball over/under’s can be explained by
certain factors—including the starting pitching, weather conditions, ballpark
locations, and sometimes even the umpire. This article will help to shed light
into playing these over/unders, and hopefully offer the reader some helpful
hints into playing these types of bets.
When to bet the ‘Over’
Betting the over requires several conditions to be met. Principally, overs in
baseball games are a good bet when the starting pitchers have relatively high
E.R.A.’s (earned run averages). Secondly, the two teams must not be in a slump.
Teams who are slumping usually do not score many runs, and backing the ‘over’ in
such games is very dangerous. Weather conditions such as the wind direction and
velocity can be very helpful—winds blowing out to center field, right field, and
left field are generally good conditions for the over. Physical location,
likewise, is a good factor to consider when placing an ‘over’ bet.
Places such as Wrigley Field, Fenway Park, and Coors Field have usually been
good parks to be the ‘over’ bets, but in recent years, the home team offenses
have been subpar, thus leading to surprising ‘under’ games. Lastly, the umpire
at home plate is another factor to consider in placing the ‘over’. Some umpires
have a wide strike zone, while others have a narrow one. Those umpires with a
narrower strike zone than the rest usually produce more runs in the games, and
hence more ‘over’ games than the average umpires (narrower strike zones means
more walks, and eventually more runs).
When to bet the ‘Under’
Similar to the ‘over’ bets, betting the under has similar factors to consider.
Usually ‘under’ bets in baseball become more profitable in playoff games. Games
that are meaningful to a team (such as playoff clincher, playoff berth, rivalry
games, etc.) also are spots to bet the ‘under’. Teams that feature great
starting pitchers often are deceitful ‘under’ bets, for sometimes these ‘unders’
are too low. A good indicator of betting the under is how a team in performing.
Similar factors that went into betting the ‘over’ also can be used to bet the
‘under’. Weather situations such as the wind blowing into center field, from
right to left, from right field to center field, etc. are all cases for betting
the under. Slumping teams offer great value in betting the ‘under’. Umpires with
a wide strike zone also are usually great ‘under’ umpires. Some classic ‘under’
parks include Petco Park, Pro Player Stadium, etc.
In closing, there are many factors to consider when betting either the
over/under. Take heed of all the factors involve before placing such a bet, and
remember to always look for value in baseball plays.
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