NFL Betting System - Go Against the Public
By Kris Lazaro (11/30/2006)
If you are new to betting the NFL, the only advice we can give you is to not buy into the hype. Bet against the public at all costs. It is not that the public is dumb but they feed too much into momentum and betting on the teams that should win.
There is far too much parity in the NFL to expect any given team to always win. Then you also must understand that when the public is all siding against a particular team, that in and of itself becomes a very big motivating factor for the team. No team wants to go into a game knowing that they are 3 point underdogs at home. They will go in it full arms swinging.
The public sways the odds. Too much betting action on one side will tilt the odds against the public. So of all those games decided by 1.5 points or fewer according to Vegas standards, probably one-third of them were shifted because of the public.
The public that backs the small favorites is a big team to avoid. They are probably only small favorites because the public thinks they are the team to win. Even if they probably have little reason to win. I have seen really bad road teams as small favorites just because the public saw them as the team to beat. They were coming off impressive home wins and the public felt that would carry over to this game. Because the home/road statistics play a big role in the odds Vegas sets. They were pitted as a small favorite that everybody believed would have a cake walk. They bet the team heavily and lost their pants.
Just remember that Vegas always wins and the public always loses. Who do you want to back?
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