Basketball - NBA Playoff teams down 0 2 coming back h

In the National Basketball Association (NBA) Playoffs, one of the greatest angles that has been very profitable in the last few years has been backing the team that is down 0-2 and is currently playing its next game at home, especially if it either the #4 or #5 seed (since these two teams are relatively equal in strength and talent).

Psychologically, teams in this spot are desperate for a win. These teams do not want to go down 0-3, for once a team is down this much, the odds of them winning the series almost becomes impossible. Another incentive for this team to win is the home crowd—those who are paying their salaries. This home team will be highly motivated for game 3 and will come out with guns blazing. On the flip side, the visiting team, having won the first two games may come out of the gate quite sluggishly. This team will not be as hungry as the home team, and often will want to win the series back at home. Teams that are notorious for this are the Detroit Pistons. This team, after going up 2-0, has rarely gone up 3-0. History tells us that these Pistons are just not that hungry to have a commanding lead in their series.

If the #4 or #5 seed team is down 0-2 and coming back home, this home team will have a great advantage for game 3. These teams usually beat the spread (ATS) and win the game straight up. Since these two teams are supposed to be relatively equal, one may assume that things will balance themselves out and make this a competitive series for both teams. Another factor that will make this angle even more stronger is the road v. home dichotomy factor. If the home team is down 0-2 and has a greater home team winning record than their opposition’s road record, then this angle works even better.

As a side note, the NBA loves to have long series. Sweeps and 3-1 series do not generate as much money as a tighter, longer-lasting series; therefore, the officiating will be ultimately biased against the 2-0 in the series road team and highly in favor of the 0-2 home team, desperate for a win.

In closing, back teams who are down 0-2 if they are coming back home and especially if the series is pitting the #4 against the #5 seed. Revenge for their 2 losses, more revenue for the NBA, and a more exciting series to be had are some of the factors that will make this theory survive.

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