NBA Draft Betting
By David C Terr (7/25/2006)
Every sporting event can be wagered on and the
NBA draft is no exception. In fact, people can make a load of cash if they just
do some simple research and line shopping.
Here is the deal about betting on the NBA draft: the majority of people that
gamble on it do it for fun. Among seasoned handicappers, betting on such things
rarely take place. As a result, Vegas and the sportsbooks only really take in
money from average Joes. As a result, the more betting options they give their
customers, the more money they will have wagered at their
sportsbooks and undoubtedly the more money they will win.
Do they do a good job researching all of these lines? No. In fact, they make it
clear that they don't by always strapping on a lot of juice and limiting the
amount you can risk on the game.
But because of the high juice it takes a lot of effort and patience to really
make money doing this. And if you don't, at least you had fun in the process.
Here are our steps to profiting from the NBA Draft.
1. Find the best lines around. The biggest disparity in odds across the
sportsbooks are futures and prop bets. Since there is no general
thumb for making these odds, most sportsbooks kind of make them up on the fly.
You definitely must have accounts at around 3-5 sportsbooks to truly be
successful at this. We recommend you checking out the sportsbooks on our site.
2. Reading the local papers will let you know what the teams are thinking going
into the draft. Especially when it comes to who will be picked #1. In fact, it
was apparent 2-3 days prior to the draft that Reggie Bush was not going to be
taken #1. How can you tell? Reggie Bush said it himself to some local papers
about how he was given the "brush aside" treatment which made him feel like he
was not even considered. Reggie Bush remained at -300 odds to be selected #1
because this information was never trickled up to national media.
3. Make your bets according to the need around the league. The lottery picks are
usually very predictable. Teams will generally select the best players available
in an effort to build around that player. What we see from the later rounds is a
draft geared more towards need. For example, the Nets, Bulls, and Pistons all
lost to the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade carried that team so you should expect to
see emphasis being made on taking good perimeter defenders to try and slow down
Wade. For this reason alone, we expect to see Jordan Farmar selected in the
first round. Additionally, the NBA is a copycat league and teams will draft
guards only becase the Heat won because of a guard. So check the sportsbooks to
see the over/under on Jordan Farmar's draft positions and the over/under for
guards taken in the first round. Farmar should go Under the total and total
guards chosen should go over.
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