Betting Systems - Must Win Scenarios

Across the sports of baseball, football, and basketball, there exist a scenario that is dreaded by the teams that fall into such a category: that being in a ‘must-win’ scenario. As a sports bettor, realize that oddsmakers have already factored this into the line, so try not to ‘outsmart’ the oddsmakers by playing the teams ‘on the bubble’ if the line is a little fishy. As this article will elucidate, fading such teams are actually a solid bet in the long term.

The public loves to buy into the hype. With this line of reasoning, then, oddsmakers intentionally shade lines against those teams that are in ‘must-win’ scenarios. For example in baseball, favorites that are in ‘must-win’ scenarios are shaded so high, that betting on them looses value. The team might still win, but the risk involved in backing such a team is far greater than the mathematical probability of them winning (as opposed to teams in normal situations). In the point spread sports of football and basketball, oddsmakers simply shade the lines. For example, ‘must-win’ teams are shaded on the point spread—if team A is really supposed to be favored by 4 points, a shaded line would slightly be higher (as in being favored by 4.5, 5, 5.5 points, etc.)

Teams in ‘must-win’ scenarios also face the added pressure of winning games. Such teams often are tense and do not play to their capabilities, due to their nervousness and stressed-out disposition. Their opposition, though, is almost always not in the same situation, therefore such teams play looser and take more risks A great example of an uptight team that needed to win was the 1993 Miami Dolphins. This Dolphins team only needed one win from their last 5 games of the regular season to qualify for the post-season. Sadly, this Dolphins team is still looking for that last win—they finished the season 0-5 and were shut out from the playoffs.

In closing, consider fading teams that are in ‘must-win’ situations. These teams play too tense and have shaded lines against them, which fading them has inherent value and a psychological edge associated to them.