As stated in another article, consistently betting underdogs in the National Football League (NFL) is a winning proposition. But, in the other sports of basketball (NBA and NCAAB), baseball (MLB), and hockey (NHL), betting a mixture of favorites and underdogs will ensure a greater profitability margin in the long run.
Some key points to look for in betting underdogs:
Go for underdogs who are motivated. A friend of the author who only plays underdogs against the spread (ATS) only plays them if he thinks such an underdog has a good chance of winning the game. Hence, taking the points is mere ‘insurance’. The author’s friend was a scout and only played about 10-12 games per NBA season (a scout is someone who rarely plays, but when the situation arises they play such a side pretty heavily).
Go for underdogs who are seeking revenge. This angle is strongest in college, where emotions are at their highest. College athletes thrive in emotionally charge games, and as such, motivated underdogs who are seeking revenge often play better than their competition.
Bet NFL underdogs. This is a straight-forward angle. NFL underdogs have inherent value to them. Bet it.
Some key points to look for in betting favorites:
Look for blowout games. Since favorites have to lay points (a team must win by more than the designated amount of points given by the oddsmakers), a favored team needs to win by a certain number—blowout games almost always also cover the game.
Playing against the public. Since the public loves to bet the favorites, bettors should only really play the favorite if the public is on the underdog. Favorites have an inherent negative edge against them.
If the points look too good to be true in a match up, they usually are. If a winning team is given a lot of points, bettor beware. It would probably be better to back the favorite in such a match up.
In closing, betting a mixture of underdogs and favorites will ensure the bettor of have a winning percentage in the long term.