Losing the Games You Should Win
By Peter Portero (6/14/2006)
The common mantra to all of sports is
to win the games you are supposed to win and play 50% over the rest of your
games. How else did the senior citizen team of Stockton-Malone play so well at
the ends of their Jazz career? In baseball, how do teams react when they lose a
game they were supposed to win?
Our first goal was to define what "supposed to
win" means. So we begin our analysis with teams who are favourites of -165 or
greater. We choose -165 because it is the break-even point for a 100 game win
season. I am sure you all would agree that a 100 win team pretty much expects to
win every game.
We found that these teams have gone 846-534 +36 units dating back to the start
of the 2000 season.
This is promising news because we get to work with something that already makes
you money. Commonly, when we bet on baseball and look for a bounce back game, we
find that it helps trying to avenge a loss against the same team that you faced.
By forcing our analysis to these situations, our system improves to 584-335 +26
units during the same span.
We can make this system easily pop by looking for teams that lost by the run
line or are getting good
odds, division
rivalry, and pitching matchups.
Effective handicapping strategies will
make you money. |
