Betting Systems - Line Analysis

Betting lines are set for a reason. In an earlier article, the author described how lines are made—the following is a short synopsis of what to look for in ‘fishy’ lines. Once a sports bettor becomes acclimated to a specific sport, he can pretty much estimate what the line should be between two teams, pending injuries, suspensions and other unforeseeable events. Fishy lines arise from a sports term known as shading. Shading is the addition of points by the oddsmakers to overcompensate for a readily known trend. For example, if everyone is thinking that team A will win and cover (based on statistical evidence, and the sort), oddsmaker will intentionally make the favorite a bigger favorite than they actually are. In other words if the normal spread for Team A is 5 points, a ‘shaded’ line will be higher, as in 5.5 points, 6 points, 6.5 points, or even higher.

The following sports tidbits will help out sports gamblers, as many of the following are ‘trick’ lines employed by oddsmakers to entice unknowing sports gamblers to pick the loosing side:

Small home favorites—for the most part small home favorites in football and basketball are bad bets. Several reasons explain this trend, but the most obvious explanation is that small home favorites simply are in a bad situation. Their opposition is ‘close’ enough to beat them, and for the most part, such small home favorites loose the game.

7 point favorites—This spread surprisingly applies to both football and basketball. Such favorites are bad bets to back. Since teasers for both sports are in this price range, teasing to 7 point favorites may seem to some as ‘easy’ bets. Accordingly, most 7 point favorites lose the game they play straight up. 7 points in basketball is also a key number.

Double digit favorites in the NFL—This angle is pretty simple: go against double-digit favorites in the NFL for the sole reason of the parity of all the teams in this league. No matter how bad one team is, they are still an NFL team, and deserve the respect of bettors.

In closing, fishy lines should be read into closely, and be careful to not bet into ‘trick’ lines.