Home Teams Dominating the Starts of a Series
By Peter Portero (6/14/2006)
Home teams are winning the first game
of a series nearly 60% of the time, a rate 5% greater than any of the previous 6
seasons. They are undervalued by the
sportsbooks
by a full 11 points and represent an important angle you must consider when
making plays.
What this all means is that you must beware of struggling road teams coming into
the first game of a series. They just will not be able to match the intensity
brought forth by the home team. By going against the road teams coming into the
series off a loss, we find ourselves a 96-51 [65%, +33 unit] system that is
driving the sportsbooks crazy.
People are starting to jump on this bandwagon and bet on these teams but the
sportsbooks are afraid of adjusting for fear the law of averages will bring
things back. But the truth is that home field advantage is the strongest in the
first game of a series. Using this angle over the previous 7 full seasons coming
into this year you would have gone +57 units.
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