In the National Basketball Association (NBA) a strange scheduling event takes place whereby two teams play each other twice in a row, alternating home stands. For example if Team A plays Team B, game 1 will be at Team A’s gym, while game 2 will be at Team B’s gym. In sports betting terms, it behooves the sports bettor to back the losing team in game 1 for game 2. The reasoning behind this thinking is that the losing team will usually be more motivated for the second game as opposed to the winning team in game 1.
Combined with other angles, using the home and home series angle can be a quite powerful angle to use in the NBA. This angle actually is strongest if the two games are close apart (as in back-to-back games, on zero days’ rest). Such situations will make the losing team’s sting of defeat fresh, thus making them more motivated to avenge their loss. If such a loss is in overtime (OT), then such a play is at its strongest.
If the historical data shows that the home team is dominant in the series, and if the home team won in game 1 of the home and home series, then consider playing the home team in game 2 relatively large. Such combining factors add to the strength of such plays and should be played accordingly.
Most of these games occur between divisional rivals. Games between such teams often take place 4 times a season. The home and home series, thus, pits two teams that know each other quite well; a fact that strengthen backing the game 1 loser for the second game (as a side note, when the author refers to ‘backing’ a team, the author is referring to playing the team against the spread).
In conclusion, in home and home series games, play the game 1 loser for the second game.
Super bowl Betting
Everybody bets the Super Bowl. This is a known fact by all professional handicappers and the oddsmakers they try to beat. As it is a very public betting event, there can be ultimate value to be attained, if one looks for the proper bets. As this article will show, the author will attempt to elucidate the ‘value’ bets of the game.
The first value bet is the underdog against the spread bet (ATS). As most people love to bet the favorite, the oddsmakers often shade the favorite against the spread. For example, if two teams were matched up during the regular season, the betting line would probably be about 2-3 points lower for the favorite. Thus, betting the underdog ‘with the points’ has inherent value. A special case occurs when the underdog is a 7 point underdog. Such bets have recently showed to be very strong bets, especially during the Super Bowl and other such nationally-televised games.
The second value bet is betting the favorite on the moneyline (ML). People who casually bet will usually bet the underdog on the moneyline, falsely seeing value in the play. Comments such as, “these two teams are good enough to make it here…why should I lay more money on one team (the favorite), if I can get plus money on the underdog”. This type of thinking will dupe the public into betting the underdog on the moneyline—a bet that is only won if such a team actually wins the game straight up.
The author highly suggests playing either side when playing the Super Bowl. Since this game is simply one game, and unless one has a very strong angle, a sports bettor should not make this a substantial wager in any stretch of the imagination. There is so much money involved in this game that sportsbooks only hope to break even in this game (although the sportsbooks have been collecting and winning during the past decade).
In summary, the two value bets of the Super Bowl are the underdog ATS and the favorite on the moneyline.