Betting Systems - Fatigue And Covering

In general, tired teams do not win games. In sports gambling, though, oddsmakers have already accounted for this fact. In the spread games of football and basketball, such teams have been shaded in favor of their side (in other words, they receive more points). In moneyline games, such as in baseball, the line is adjusted accordingly.

Baseball players are often most fatigued at the tail end of a long road trip. The author has experienced that the best time to fade a road team is in its first game of the third consequential road series. Since baseball games are played in series, where teams play 3-4 games in a row in the same city, the most brutal schedule / travel factor involves the first game of the final series of a road trip (usually 3rd series).

In the NBA (national basketball association), fatigue has become overrated. Fading teams off back-to-back games used to be good bets. Their lines were so soft, that it became rather commonplace to go against such teams. But, as word let out, oddsmakers quickly started to shade such teams. Teams also are now preparing more vigorously for such game situations. They do not expend too much energy in the first game of a back to back. An interesting phenomenon developed during the 2006-07 NBA season regarding such a concept—the San Antonio Spurs were notorious for being a bad back to back team. When the season began, Greg Popovich, coach of the Spurs decided to try something different with his squad. Currently, the Spurs have improved their back to back games and are now one of the best teams to bet on in this situation.

In football (both professional and collegiate), teams only play once a week. The only fatigue angle that can be used is when a team lays on Thursdays. Beginning with the 2006-07 season, the NFL recently added a Thursday game to complement Monday Night Football. This additional game has provided more interest in the sport, and as such, another betting opportunity for gamblers. The author has seen that the road teams usually perform poorly, perhaps due to the shortened week.
In closing, fatigue is a big angle to consider, but oddsmakers have also seen the effects of such factors, hence losing value.