Fading the Public
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
Las Vegas was not built on players’ winnings,
rather, it is built on money lost by hard-working individuals. Sadly, but often
true, casinos have the edge on every game on its floor—including the sportsbook.
What may seem like an easy bet usually results in a loss for the player. This
article will hopefully show that it is possible to beat the casino in their own
game, for like the old adage says, “if you can’t beat them, join them”.
Fading the public usually entails a rough 60% winning percentage in the long run.
This angle usually works best in spread games, such as football and basketball.
Baseball, which usually relies on truer odds, usually does not follow the fade
the public rule. This angle can actually become stronger in conjunction with
other angles, and solidified with this particular angle: fading the betting
public favorite in high profile games (notice the term public favorite—this can
be either the actual favorite or underdog in this case). High profile games such
as the Superbowl, NBA Finals, etc., all have heavy handles, and therefore
require ‘shaded’ lines to compensate for the increased actions felt by the
sportsbooks. Before this past years Superbowl (2006), Las Vegas
has enjoyed raking in their winnings year after year for the past 8 years or so.
This example, thus, shows the efficacy of this obscure angle.
The bettor, though, must realize that this angle must be used in conjunction
with other angles. Case in point—the past NFL season of 2006. Arguably one of
the most horrendous season for the sportsbooks, this past year has seen the
‘best’ teams cover and win their games at an alarming rate. Sportsbooks usually
pride themselves in destroying the public, but like the old saying goes, ‘every
dog (in this case favorite) has its day’. In this tone, consider that sometimes
the public does win. Do not merely bet against the public blindly, sometimes the
sharps are right there alongside with them.
Some online sites to consider (and analyze) include www.covers.com,
www.sportsinsights.com, and www.sportsbook.com. These sites show the percentage
of where the money is going (but it does not show if they money is ‘public’ or ‘sharp’).
In summary, betting against the public in the long run can be very profitable (since
you are actually betting with the casinos). The only drawback in this type of
gambling is the long haul effect. In order to succeed, one must not be
discourage in a losing streak, for like the casinos, they too suffer losses in
the short term (the key term being short term). If one holds the course, and
consistently bets against the public, one will eventually enjoy the inherent
edge created by the sportsbooks themselves.
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