Do You Love Betting Baseball's Favorites?
By David C Terr (7/25/2006)
We love betting favorites in
baseball because we know we have a darn good chance to win when
we do. The only problem is that they are heavy chalk, much more than they should
be. So betting on them should be done wisely. We give you 5 tips.
Favorites, in all sports, are defined as the team with the highest likelihood of
winning. But if you want to bet on them, you better make sure of the following:
First, make sure that they are motivated. How many times have you bet on a team
to only see them put a half-ass effort in the game they are playing. Then they
try to make an effort at the end only to fall short. Or worse, they take an
early lead and let their guard down. Teams are generally the most motivated if
coming off a loss. We have been making money betting on -200 favorites that are
coming off a loss as a huge favorite.
Second, make sure your team is not overlooking its opponent. Favorites can often
times underestimate their opponents. This generally occurs by a road team in the
first game of a series against a team that sucks in the standings but might be
playing well and looking to get an early series lead.
Third, avoid teams with any kind of bullpen issue, whether it is rust or that
they simply suck. You are laying heavy chalk generally because your team is
sporting the better pitcher but pitchers generally only pitch about 6 innings
each so minimize the risk of the last 3 innings by avoiding teams with a used
bullpen.
Fourth, make sure you take the game as Listed Pitchers if you are making the bet
based on the pitcher.
Fifth, bet at a
sportsbook with better lines for favorites.
How many times have you seen a team at -210 and its opponent at +175? It is a
ridiculous amount of chalk on both sides of the game but it does not have to be
like that. Some
sportsbooks will offer you smaller juice on
both sides. In fact, if you bet at Pinnacle Sportsbook, their odds for both
teams on any game are generally the best because they have an 8 cent line on the
games.
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