Do Heavy Favorites Win in Football
By Michael Williams (2/19/2007)
A lot has been said about football's heavy favorites. It is often said that they do not win. They are right, it does not work.
Football is relatively low scoring. And because of the parity that exists in the NFL a heavy favorite has a hard time beating the spread.
Teams do blow others out. And that is why we still see the big heavy chalk. But you must understand that it happens when the spreads are in the 6-10 range. When the spread is closer, the games are generally tighter. When the spread is out of proportion, you see unmotivated favorites.
When a team sees itself as a heavy double digit dog, it hurts their confidence. It is like someone smacked them in the face without them even playing a game. So they play better. They work harder to prove everybody wrong. This does not mean that they end up winning the game, but they do keep the game close enough to beat a heavy 2 TD spread.
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