Defense Wins Championships And Covers Games
Defense is perhaps the most important thing to consider in handicapping sports games. In general, the better defensive team in a particular matchup usually covers the game against the spread. Many people wonder why the Indianapolis Colts, Sacramento Kings, and other such ‘potent’ offenses have never won their respective sport championships. One only needs to look at how they defend to realize why these types of teams have never won a championship title.
A key statistic to look at when determining which team in a particular matchup is the ‘better’ defensive team is to identify how many points does such a team give up. For example, if Team A allows 21.3 points per game, while Team B allows 13.8 points per game, then, Team B can be considered the better defensive team. Depending on the sport, other factors can also be considered in considering which team is the ‘better’ defensive team. In football, one can analyze the yards given up by a team; the amount of turnovers forced; and the amount of passing and rushing yards given up by a team. In basketball, one can analyze the defensive shooting percentage allowed (the shooting percentage by the opponent); the amount of defensive rebounds (a.k.a. ‘boards’); and, similar to football, the amount of turnovers forced by the defense.
In a related topic, the better-rested defense will also cover a second half line. In football, both NCAAF and NFL, if a team’s defense is on the field more than the other team’s, then such a team will not cover the second half line (in other words, if a team has a longer time of possession in the first half, such a team will also cover the second half line). Another angle to consider is rushing yards. If a team allows lesser yards in rushing than its opposition, then such a team will also cover the second half line.
Defense wins games and championships. How many times in the past has a game come down to a single play—either score and win, or not score and lose. If a team has a good defense, they will win more games than they lose. Most coaches agree that a better defense is more important than a good offense.
In summary, in considering which team will cover a game against the spread, one can analyze which team has the better defense. A good defensive team not only wins games, but also covers them.