Betting Systems - Competitiveness Of Baseball

We determine the competitiveness of baseball's different types of games to be the probability that such a game ends up in a 1 run differential. If two teams play and the game is close, it is obviously competitive! So let us give you some data to look at.

The following is a table of the percentages of 1 run games.

• Interleague Games - 561/2056 = 27.3%
• Division Rivalry Games - 2293/8291 = 27.7%
• Non-Divisional Games - 2580/9338 = 27.6%

As you can see, interleague games are the least competitive type of game. It makes sense because there are not extensive scouting reports available for interleague teams. Then the road teams are not so familiar with the home team's stadium which hurts both the pitchers and hitters. Then the intensity is not all that great during interleague games. Teams do not have storied rivalries so they do not play that hard.

What we found interesting was the fact that divisional rivalry games and non-divisional rivalry games were just as competitive as each other if identified over the whole. But the truth is that big favorites in divisional rivalry games do not win as large a margin. And underdogs tend to win a bit more close games in divisional rivalry games.

So what this means is that divisional rivalry underdogs are more competitive than any other type of underdog.

Here is the win percentages of all the underdogs.

• Interleague Games - 801/2056 = 39.0%
• Division Rivalry Games - 3414/8291 = 41.2%
• Non-Divisional Games - 3680/9338 = 39.4%

Just as we suspected, divisional rivalry underdogs win at a 2.0% better clip than the rest of baseball's underdogs. And this also leads up to better odds. Be sure to bet on the best teams in baseball.