We see the Royals mired in their second very long losing streak of the season
and we are barely half way to the All Star Break. Can any team in professional
sports be any worse than these lowly Royals, I don't think so. At least not at
the Royals pace.
No team has
ever lost all 162 games, right? So when you see a team on a large losing streak,
is there a point in time that betting ON them because profitable? I am sure
nobody is going to bet on a team mired in a slump of say 6 consecutive losses.
But Vegas adjust the odds from its true value to meet up with public perception,
creating value with the bad team. But if you were to have pick 6 as your magic
number you would have been betting (and losing) with these Royals in 6
consecutive games.
My statistics
will go from 1999 to present and we will analyze how teams do in a game if
coming off exactly the following number of consecutive losses.
1: [4307-4317,
-205 Units, Ex = -2.4]
2: [2084-2201,
-108 Units, Ex = -2.5]
3: [1022-1150,
-91 Units, Ex = -4.2]
4: [518-614,
-56 Units, Ex = -5.0]
5: [277-333, -2
Units, Ex = -0.0]
6: [150-181, +0
Units, Ex = +0.0]
7: [67-113, -32
Units, Ex = -17.9]
8: [61-51, +32
Units, Ex = +29.0]
9: [25-25, +8
Units, Ex = +15.5]
10: [8-17, -5
Units, Ex = -21.1]
We see a high
expected value for teams in the 8, 9 loss range. Perhaps it has something to do
with the "not wanting to lose 10 in a row" factor. We do notice that as teams
lose, their expected rate of return drops until they reach 5 consecutive losses.
We feel this is a very valid conclusion to make because as soon as a team gets
to 5 consecutive losses, the media is on their case for playing so poorly and
Vegas therefore adds points to their favor.
Other articles with respect to betting tips:
Middling the Sportsbooks for Fun and Profits
Back Home After a Long Road Trip in Baseball
The Domination of Lefties in the 2006 MLB Season