In high profile games, where there is a majority of interest in the outcome of the game (such as the Superbowl, NBA finals, etc.), odds makers will intentionally shade the publicly favored side—this could either be the underdog or the favorite, depending upon the public’s current love affair.
The sports media scrutinizes such highly publicized games, and often, such ‘experts’ on television are often wrong. Take the National Football League for example. Every weekend, so-called experts pick the winning side of every football game. More often than not, these picks dip below the .500 mark if one were to bet them against the spread—why, then, the reader may ask. It is because the odds makers often shade against these sides. The lines makers know that the public side will be bet upon heavily, and as such they will adjust to counteract the heavy betting.
In big games on television, the same theory holds. If one side is clearly the easy choice, such a side will usually loose. An exception to this is college basketball—for some reason, public favorites cover more often than not in this sport. At the time of publication, the author has yet to study the effects of this phenomenon in further detail.
Besides the statistics, the sports bettor must also handicap the public that will bet into the line. Odds makers have already accounted for this fact; and as such, the sports bettor must also take this into account. The sports bettor must realize that the ‘easy’ choice in a side will be shaded, and that the better team will not always cover the game. If the gambler realizes this fact, he will surely show a profit in the end of the season.
Taking the points in nationally televised games against a very good team is also a good bet in general. If the favorite is the ‘easy’ pick, taking the points on the underdog takes on inherent value. Such a team will play with more motivation and will also play to a national audience, thus elevating their game play. Backing such teams is generally a good bet.
In closing, big games attract big money, not all of which is necessarily ‘smart’ money.