Are you Betting the Second Half of the NBA Playoffs?
By Michael Williams (5/29/2006)
Many of you out there love to bet on the second half of basketball games. It is
a way for us to see how the match plays out and make our bet for the second
half. We have an advantage in that sense. But the books have the edge unless you
take our advice.
I will use the
seventh game of the Mavericks-Spurs game as an example. The Mavericks were up by
15 at halftime and we all knew the Spurs would come back. They had to. They are
the defending champions. They are at home. And its Game 7! The gloves come off
baby. The sharp bettors and the public were both all over the Spurs second half
line.
The Spurs
inched closer and closer as the game progressed. And had a 3 point lead with
time on their side. That was until Dirk hits a 3 point play to send it to
overtime. Well, long story short, if you bet this game and you had the Spurs
-6.5 you lost. The Mavericks on the backs of some garbage time points came out
victorious at +6.5 for the second half. The line stood at 6 at other sportsbooks.
The true spread
for the game should be Spurs -6 based on historical and power ratings analysis.
So why did so many books screw you at -6.5? Because they knew you would bet
whatever the line was. If the line was Spurs -7, a good number of you still
would have bet it. The only reason they dont put it to -7 is because there are
sportsbooks out there that do not shade the line which keeps them honest.
No sportsbook
wants to have a line that 1 point off another book. If one book had -7 and
another -6. How many of you would take Mavericks +7 and Spurs -6 on the same
card? A lot!
So many games
end in a half or one-point differential between a win-push-loss. And if you are
betting at a sportsbook that is shading the line against you, stop. You are
throwing money away. If you are looking at sports betting as an investment tool
then you have to make sure you get the best edge in every possible scenario.
Check out our
recommended sportsbooks at:
VIP Sports Sportsbook
Bet365
BetCris
Bodog |