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Betting on the Champion


By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)

This angle is very limited, for it only applies to professional championship games, yet it has shown to be very profitable in all the major professional sports, dating back the last 5 years or so…This angle is very simple to understand—basically it says to go for the team who has made the most money during the current season.

In Major League Baseball, the eventual World Series champion usually is the team that has made the most money for bettors. In other terms, it is the best moneyline team (as evidenced by www.covers.com). These teams usually overperform to their potential and are usually those teams who have won the most games in the season.

In the National Basketball Association (not including the NCAAB), the better ATS team in the matchup usually wins the series). The 2005-06 season was an anomaly, with the Heat beating the superior ATS team in the Mavericks. Several arguments can be made regarding this result, but this article will not delve into this topic. This angle does not apply to teams going for back-to-back titles (such as the 2000-2001 Lakers).

In the National Football League (not including the NCAAF), the ATS angle has run flawless during the past 5 years. The best ATS team has won (but not really covered) all of the previous Superbowls in the recent decade. This past year has seen two teams who were relatively equal ATS-wise in the Steelers and Seahawks. The Seahawks’ lone push in one of their games resulted in them being the lower seed, thus enabling the Steelers to become the better ATS team.

The National Hockey Association also applies to this angle (although it is more relevant considering the playoff ATS angle). This past year has also seen an anomaly, when the Edmonton Oilers lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in 7 games. If it were not for the key lost of its star goalie due to injury in game 1 of the finals, the Oilers should have won this series. Nonetheless, short of this past year, the ATS angle has been strong.

In summary, this ATS angle for the championship games can only be applied to the professional sports of the MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL. It mainly states that the better ATS/moneyline team will win the championship. College championship games such as the NCAAF championship game, and the NCAAB championship game do not fall into this angle.

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Betting on the Champion