Betting on Streaks
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
Streaks can be either good or bad. Teams win in
streaks; teams, likewise, lose in streaks. It is therefore up to the bettor to
determine when to ride such hot teams, fade such cold teams, and get off the
train when the wheels start to fall off.
Betting on streaks usually work best in Major League
Baseball. Baseball teams, unlike other major sports, streak the
most profoundly. Teams who win consistently, usually win more games than they
lose, and vice versa, teams who lose consistently, usually lose more games than
they win. The only drawback to betting on these types of games is the loss of
value on winning teams. Since teams who are on a winning streak usually win
their next game, the oddsmakers thus lowers the ‘true’ odds of the game.
In basketball and football (both professional and college), the oddsmakers
continually devalue betting on winning, streaking teams. If a team has won
multiple games in a row, oddsmakers usually catch on, and make it tougher for
bettors to back them in their next game. Conversely, teams who are on a losing
streak get a little help from the oddsmakers. They usually receive more points
(as an underdog) and can sometimes be profitable to bet on if the situation is
correct.
The question then arise, “what is considered a streak?” Personally, a streak is
defined as a string of outcomes of similar results, usually consisting of 4 or
more occurrences. Streaks can be hard to spot, for whenever a streak is realized
it usually comes to an end. Streaks can also be considered on a grander scale.
Consider this phrase, “The Anaheim Angels are currently on a 16-5 streak in the
month of July”. Although the Angels have lost 5 times thus far in the month of
July is not sequential, they are nonetheless on a current excellent streak of
winning 16 games during their last 21 games.
Streaks can be volatile and should not be used as an exclusive angle to bet on.
The seasoned gambler should realize that streaks are streaks and can be ended at
any time. It is up to the bettor to respect this fact and bet accordingly.
Another fact to consider is the amount of exposure time that teams undergo
during a winning streak. The public starts to notice, and likewise, the
oddsmakers (thus resulting in skewed lines/spreads in the future). What once was
a great value bet on a streaking, unknown NCAAB team has then become a
horrendous 20-game winning streak, on the national spotlight team.
In closing, streaks come to an end. If caught earlier on, the bettor may still
be able to enjoy the great value offered by the oddsmakers on such a great,
streaking team.
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