Betting Early Baseball Games
By Kris Lazaro (5/3/2007)
Preview for the 2007 Season
After the first three games of the season, the Marlins are averaging over 8 runs a game. Is this indicative of the kind of season the Marlins offense will have? Or is it just a result of poor pitching by the Washington Nationals. The Marlins were not a very good team last season. As a result of that, the over/unders are going to be quite low for this team this season. Therefore, as you watch these Marlins on a scoring spree, tap the overs while it is profitable.
Because at some point the sportsbooks will adjust to the strong offensive numbers put up by the Marlins and betting the overs will no longer be profitable. The general public generally believes that they should wait until they see a definite trend. But you know the problem is that the sportsbook catches onto a trend far before we do.
Therefore betting on early season successes and against early season failures is where the money is at. It is true that sometimes you would end up betting on or against a fluke scenario but if they are truly flukes, the opportunities to bet them will dwindle away fast. For example, if betting on the Marlins to go over is a fluke, you will see the run production of the Marlins dwindle to near nothing for a few games. Perhaps even a week. And you would stop.
But if betting on the Marlins to go over was for real, it could be profitable for as many as 20-40 games. We have seen some teams be profitable either over/under/win/loss for the entire season just because the public did not really "believe" the team was for real. Case in point were the Chicago White Sox two years ago and the Detroit Tigers of last season. They were money in almost every case. Sure the public was excited about them but they were not given superstar team status like the Yankees or Red Sox, they were labeled just an above average team. With respect to the odds of course. |