Betting 2nd halves (football and basketball)
By Kris Lazaro (8/15/2006)
The second half line can at first be a daunting
line to consider. This article will show when and how to bet the second half
line and will hopefully teach the average bettor the common misconceptions and
the ‘traps’ that most bettors fall into.
With respect to football basketball, the 2nd half lines are constructed the same
way. Most
sportsbooks offer the 2nd half line right
after the 1st half ends, and usually keep it open until the start of the 2nd
half (although some sportsbooks now are offering their 2nd half lines during the
last 2 minutes of the 1st half). The 2nd half line takes into consideration the
full game line and must be analyzed accordingly.
A recurring theme exists in betting the 2nd half for basketball and football
games. This time is usually the instance where the betting public sees the first
half and bets according to what they see. Usually this type of betting works (as
this article will show), but in most cases, it is the wrong handicapping tool to
use. In football, the best way to bet the 2nd half is to look who is winning the
rushing game and time of possession, and not necessarily who is winning the
game. If a team is outrushing its opponent and is holding the ball more than the
other team, this team will usually win the 2nd half and the entire game (due to
this team’s defense taking on a bigger, more rested role in the 2nd half). In
basketball, it is usually better to fade a team shooting over 60% if this team
is relatively playing a close game with its opponent. In basic terms, if such a
team is shooting this well and they are simply keeping up or ‘equal’ to their
opponent, 2nd half adjustments will be made by the opposition and usually the
field goal percentage will average out in the latter half. In general, another
great 2nd half angle in the NBA exist—if the 1st half is very high scoring/low
scoring (going over or under the ‘over/under’ line by 15 points or more), then
betting the opposite is the best bet in the 2nd half.
In summary, the 2nd half line is used in conjunction with how the game is
progressing. Teams who are leading the first half usually keep their leads if
they follow the above stated ‘law’s’. Teams that come back are those teams that
make adjustments and have the better gameplan for the entire game. Things also
tend to average themselves out in the 2nd half.
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