Basketball Betting Systems - One-Point Wins in the NBA
By Michael Williams (2/19/2007)
The kiss of death to any NBA team with respect to the spread is a one-point win. Yes, they will lose the very next game with higher probability than if they had lost the game by 1 point. Or won by 2 points.
Why is this? Well, they got a win. It was emotional, lucky, draining. They probably had to play the whole game with a lot of intensity. This keeps them from being able to be physically prepared for their next game.
Then you think about the emotional aspects. A buzzer beater win. Or watching the opponent miss a buzzer beater. You talk about it with the press and the media. You have trouble focusing on your next game.
As a reader, you may be thinking that this won't always happen after every 1-point win. You would be right. Here is the case it works the best:
if their following game is on 0 days rest and is a meaningless opponent specifically at home where they tend to let up more.
We especially like it if our team has to travel. Going from a road game to a home game without the proper physical and emotional intensity is definitely worth betting against.
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