Betting Systems - Baseball Moneyline Analysis

Since baseball moneylines rely on the true odds of a team winning or not, one can virtually pick winners without having much information at hand. At times, one can actually pick winners better by just looking at the docket, without handicapping. Below are some random moneyline analysis facts about MLB.
The author has found that American League underdogs (AL) are generally good bets. Since there is a designated hitter (DH) in this league, the addition of an extra bat somewhat helps the underdog role. In general, also, the AL is a better league as compared to the National League (NL).
Home underdogs are generally good bets to make. This bet becomes stronger if the home team is a winning team (>.500). This makes sense because if all things are equal, then home field advantage should win and carry forth a victory for the home team.

Home teams who feature rookie pitcher as starter and are priced from even money to –130 are good bets to make. Since the line is based on the starting pitchers, we are getting tremendous value on such rookie pitchers, pending that our home team has a winning home record.
Road favorites priced from –140 to –170 usually do not cover the runline (the –1.5). This theory has been observed during the years and is strangely constant throughout the years. This can be explained by the fact that both teams are relatively equal, with the home team having the edge because of mere homefield advantage.

Another angle based on moneylines is to back a large favorite (> -200) if they are coming off a loss as another large favorite. The team will want to atone such a loss and at least win the next one for its fans. For example, if team A lost as a –210 favorite, back team A in their next game as a –230 favorite.
Betting on small home favorites against bad road teams (< .500) is also a good bet. Not many bettors take into account the home and road dichotomy, and as such this value bet still exists.
In closing, betting on baseball can be tough, but given some pointers, one can make some money in the long term.