In sports betting, picking winners is actually a pretty hard feat to maintain. The most obvious pick almost always does not win, therefore, sports bettors need to have a system to direct their plays—thus avoiding to play every single game on the board. In the NBA (National Basketball Association), an angle that has repeatedly shown to show profits over the years is backing teams who have lost back-to-back 1-point losses. Another corollary to this angle is backing teams off a 1-point loss.
The reasoning for backing teams off back-to-back 1-point losses is that such a team is being competitive, and is rather hungry for a win. Oddsmakers often give a little extra padding on loosing teams, such backing a team off back-to-back losses carry with it inherent value. If this angle is combined with other angles (such as revenge, any travel angle, days’ rest, etc.), such a play would very strong. An exception to this rule include if such a team has lost any overtime (OT) games during any of the back-to-back games. Overtime in the NBA is rather difficult to overcome, and thus, losing an OT game takes a lot off a team, and bettors should know to not back such a team in their next game.
Public sentiment can also reflect a line. The public often snubs teams that are off back-to-back losses. The savvy sports gambler, thus, can take advantage of not only motivational factors, but also going against public percentages by backing back-to-back 1-point loss teams.
In closing, teams who lose their last two games by 1 point often bring a little extra fire into their next game. Such teams often over perform and are often good bets. By betting on such teams, one will get value by betting on a ‘losing’ team, and will get the benefit of a shaded line.
Injured Stars On A Team
Contrary to popular belief, teams who lose a star / superstar due to injury / suspensions / etc. in their first game usually win (and cover) their first game. This is contradictory to common thinking, but actually is a widely known handicapping angle in sports betting. Oddsmakers often over-exaggerate games in which a star is missing. The key then, is to isolate such plays and play such sides heavily if the situation permits.
Great examples occurred during the 2006-07 NBA (National Basketball Association) season: In the first day of basketball, perennial all-star Kobe Bryant was questionable against the Phoenix Suns up until tip-off. The line was hovering from a pick to Los Angeles +1, but as word came out the Bryant was a no go, the line shot up to Lakers +5. Such a drastic movement shocked the author, and as the results showed, the Lakers came away with a straight up victory, winning 114-106. Another example involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia Sixers. Both teams played a home and home series (the first game was at Cleveland), with the two teams splitting the mini-series. The amazing thing was the line movement for this game. Superstar Lebron James was injured in the first game, as the Cavaliers lost 115-118 in Overtime. The line immediately opened up as Cleveland –5, but as word spread that Lebron could not play in the next game, the line was shot down to Cleveland +1 (a whopping 6 point swing!). The author persona
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had a substantial bet on Cleveland –5 on the overnight line, so when news broke that Lebron could not play, the author chalked up the play as a lost. To everyone’s amazement, the Cavaliers rallied from a 20+ point deficit and ended winning by 8 points, 105-97 (and covering the original line of –5!).
As the above examples showed, it is very profitable to back teams in the first game in which the star is missing from the roster. After such a game, bettors should quickly jump ship and avoid such a team until the star returns.