Averages in Baseball (Part I)
By Kris Lazaro (5/4/2007)
In baseball betting, there is a plethora of statistics to consider. The average sports bettor does not take or have the time to go through all of the stats that are presented for each baseball game. But, it is through the analysis of such data that the best plays arise. Since there is a ton of information and trends that develop over the course of a baseball season, the savvy sports baseball bettor must be mindful of the law of averages as it pertains to baseball betting.
In pitching, most pitchers have a constant lifetime earned run average (ERA). Although there may be fluctuations from this number, for the most part, most pitchers will gravitate towards this ERA. For example if pitcher A has a lifetime ERA of 3.45, and such a pitcher has been pitching scoreless baseball for the past 3 games, such a pitcher is due to falter. Although it is bad to bet against streaks, such a pitcher will inevitably get rocked by the opposition. In betting terms, go against a pitcher if such a pitcher is pitching over his head. In other instances, go against a pitcher if he has recently thrown a good game in his last time out. If such a pitcher is good to mediocre, he will fall back down to Earth. On the contrary, if a pitcher has a bad game last time out, go for such a pitcher the next time he pitches. He will pitch a much better game, pending other factors, and will also usually win the game. As such, pitching can be quantified in terms of ERA.
Similar to pitching, batting can also be looked at in terms of averages. If a hitter is ‘hitting’ over his average, expect such a hitter to fall back down to Earth in his next few at bats (and vice-versa). Hitting is a very interesting thing. If a batter starts to slump, he will not have many hits. He will struggle at the plate and will not connect with anything. On the flip side, if a batter is smoking hot, he will hit anything anywhere and anytime. But, on the average, a batter will usually gravitate to his lifetime batting average.
In our next article, we will discuss averages in terms of the whole team.
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