Football - 7 point favorites in football

The –7 spread in football (both NFL and NCAAF) is the kiss of death for any team. When a team is favored by this many points, much of the hype is due to public perception. In general, when a team is favored by 7 points, teams in this situation lose ATS, and more often lose the game straight up. Some explanations for this strange occurrence include the ‘key’ 7 points, the ‘easy’ factor, and teasers.

In football, 7 points equal a touchdown plus an extra-point derived from the extra-point kick. When the spread is such, many bettors feel that the favorite should win by more than a touchdown. Consider this statement by Scott Q. Public, “I can’t believe USC is just a 7 point favorite over Texas. USC is such a better team and is no match for Texas. The Trojans should smoke them…7 points? No problem!” Sadly, most bettors think this way. When a bet looks too good to be true, it usually is. Most 7 point favorites usually look to be the better team, but as statistics show, they are the ones who usually lose the game.

Some sportsbooks feature football teasers that offer the bettor a 6 point, 6.5 point, and 7 point ‘advantage’ if the player links up 2 or more teams together. Often, there may be several 7 point favorites that look to be ‘locks’ that the average sports gambler loves to place in teasers. For example if USC and Georgia were both pegged as 7 point favorites (which they both were last 2005-06 bowl season), the average bettor would place these two teams in a 2-team teaser. In such a teaser, USC and Georgia would simply have to both win for the teaser to win. At first glance, this may seem like such an easy bet. Both teams were stellar during the regular season and had ‘homefield’ advantage in their respective bowl games. But, as one looked deeper into the statistics, both of their opponents also had several advantages going for them. Sadly, for those who made this bet, both Georgia and USC ended up losing their games. The public got duped into playing these ‘sure locks’ and paid dearly for them after the games were done. In short, never play teasers, for anything can happen in sports (it’s hard enough to win a game, let alone winning two in succession).

In closing, betting on a –7 favorite can be tricky. These ‘teaser killers’ are often the reasons why most 7 point favorites lose their games—oddsmakers make them such juicy bets that why wouldn’t the average bettor take them? Secondly, 7 points is indeed a lot a points (for if a team is an underdog of 7 points, they are actually more equal to their opponent than most would think otherwise).

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