Betting Systems - 7 point favorites

In another article, the author mentioned the significance of the seven point spread, but in this article, the author will point out some strange occurrences in both football and basketball that deals specifically with the seven point spread.

In general, the 7 point spread is the kiss of death to the favorite. Such sides are doomed to even lose the game straight up. There are many explanations as to why this occurs so frequently to 7 point favorites, but the most readily and straight forward answer is that 7 point favorites are often the easiest to tease down. Teasers are bets that join two or more sides, while adding or subtracting points to all the sides involved. For example, if a bettor were to tease two different teams, favored by 10 points and 7 points, respectively, a teaser would only require team A to win by 4 points to cover and team B to just win the game (7 point, 2-team teasers). As the bettor quickly realizes, teasing down 7 point favorites results in just a straight up victory for a teaser bet to win, thus, the bettor falsely sees value in betting teasers.

Oddsmakers and bookies alike love it when 7 point favorites lose the game straight up. They do not mind paying out the underdog straight up price (roughly +200 to +240), because they win on more busted 2-team teasers. Logically then, consistently betting 7 point underdogs on the moneyline is a good value bet. Personally, the author recommends betting such underdogs on the spread, rather than taking the moneyline price.

Situations where this is strongest appear during the playoffs. Since there is a greater volume of people betting, some of which are recreational bettors the likelihood of busted teasers reach an all time high. Astute handicappers seize these betting opportunities and bet accordingly.

In conclusion, unless warranted by multiple good angles, do not bet on 7 pint favorites. Such favorites rarely cover and most of the time even lose their game straight up.